The Kenison Numbers

How Can They Pay 2% Per Day?

2010-03-28T06:10:00.001-07:00

When people first come across sites like Cherry Shares, which trade Forex and advertise 1% or even 2% per day, they think it must be a scam.

How could it be anything but a scam if it is offering those kinds of returns?

Where could you hope to make that kind of money legitimately?

In just a moment I want you to click Here on an ad for "EZ Forex Trading". When you do, just read it. Don't buy anything.

I want you to notice that they are saying that when you are fully trained you will be able to make 5% per day from your own Forex Trading.

Now think. Suppose you are able to earn 5% a day. And suppose you get people to loan you money so that your account will be even bigger.

And suppose you offer these people 1% per day.

Don't you see that this is only 20% of your profits using their money? (1 out of 5 is 20%. You make 5% on their money and give them one of the percents).

So that is how Forex sites are able to offer 1% and up to 2% on money you loan them.

Pretty neat, huh?

A Funny Thing Happened On The Way To A HedgeFund

2009-05-02T12:32:00.000-07:00

The last two years have been tumultuous for our economy. The plans to start a hedge fund dealing in sub-prime debt were overwhelmed by the very volume of such debts.

We knew that there would be numerous defaults and that there would be marketing opportunities...but alas, it was not to be.

Investment dried up at the very moment of the tsunamie that overtook the credit world.

So I'm back to trading Forex and looking for the next great thing.

Starting A Hedge Fund

2006-09-11T07:10:00.000-07:00

As those of you who have been reading this blog for awhile know, I publish an advisory for Forex and Commodities based on the Kenison Method.

The advisory has been so successful on a hypothetical trading basis, that we are now closing it to further subscriptions and beginning the long process of building a hedge fund around its trading.

This is not a step to be taken lightly!

My first task is to translate the hypothetical track record into an actual record. This is done by opening a few managed commodities accounts where the advisory trades will be transacted in the real world.

The results of this trading will become the track record that I use to attract investment capital.

If you would like to open a managed account -- minimum of $100,000 -- use the contact form on my website.

And keep coming back here to read about the developments, trials, and tribulations of starting one's own hedge fund.

2006-07-14T09:36:00.000-07:00

Now that we are in a slow down in Real Estate it is becoming even more important to have a source of income for in-between the deals.

Even if you're an investor with rental properties this can be true. Although in a slow down people tend to rent more than buy, having too many vacancies can be just as harmful to your pocketbook as too few deals.

In future blog entries I'm going to amplify this theme, but for now suffice it to say that those who understand Real Estate -- who *get* how leverage can work for or against you -- make ideal Forex traders.

What is it? I had a Realtor ask me that just yesterday. Forex -- the word -- stand for Foreign Exchange Market. And what it is is the buying and selling of the Euro and the British Pound and Swiss Franc. This is done in large contracts that are leveraged just like a home purchase is leveraged by a mortgage.

And you figure profits the same way. Margin is your "down payment". Any appreciation gets totally credited to you and is stated as a percent of down payment -- margin.
Rates of return can be quite high. In my advisory website we aim for 5% per month and usually get it -- and more! Past results are not indicative of future gains.

I hope you've found this interesting, and will return to read more of my ramblings about the relationship between Real Estate Investing and Forex Trading.

Are These COUNTING Numbers?

2006-06-12T11:42:00.000-07:00

Some readers have in recent days asked me to explain the difference between Mr Kenison's Counting Numbers Method and my website which is called "Kenison Numbers".

Gladly.

Mr Kenison has devised a method of looking into the future and knowing when a market will reverse.

If corn is going up, say, it is possible to know which day in the future will be the high, and corn will begin to go down. The method that does this is called the Kenison Counting Numbers.

He also showed me a different method that is always-in-the-market. This method is more for speculators while his counting numbers method is more for hedgers. But that is my opinion.

Anyway, like I was saying... his always-in-the-market method doesn't need to look into the future because it is a trend following method that allows the price action to determine the trades.

This method is also better suited for short term Forex trading and is the method I teach on my educational subscription website.

You can see the results each month in the box on the right. There is also a link to the Futures trading results where you can see how we are doing using the always-in-the-market method on commodities.

BTW... it is doing very nicely, thank you!

Reduce the Drama In Your Trading

2006-04-19T06:32:00.000-07:00

In my last post I spoke of what Baseball can teach us about trading.

A few more comments before I let it go. Think of the pressure on the players during a game in the middle of the summer. The team is doing well and think that they may make it to the World Series.

Now think of the pressure that is on the players in the World Series Itself. Think of Boston down 3 games where each and every game from then on was make or break.

Now think about your trading account.

People often ask me what is the minimum to trade. The answer is $300.

But...the smaller your account, the bigger the pressure. And if you're a beginner at trading, think of it this way: would you rather begin your career at the beginning of the season, or start right during the World Series?

I mean, you're a rank beginner. Would you like your first time at bat in the pros to be during the World Series?

People do that to themselves by having too small a trading account.

$300 is fine for trading one currency. I recommend the Swiss Franc for starters. But if your account is "too small" in your opinion then the stress will eat you alive.

You will know you have "arrived" as a trader when the Drama is gone from your trading. Where each trade is not the last pitch in the World Series. When trading is almost boring: just something you do each day.

What You Can Learn About Trading From Baseball

2006-03-28T06:08:00.000-08:00

When I talk to Forex traders about the mental toughness needed to succeed, I sometimes use the analogy of baseball to make my point.

If you are playing a friendly game (or even one that is not so friendly) you know that the end result is the final score. You do not set unrealistic rules for yourself such as: "I must never get a strike called on me". Not... never strike out... but never even have one.

Who can play a game without making at least one strike?

It is also not necessary to pitch a no-hitter for the game to be a success.

But when people trade, they make rules for themselves that are just as absurd.

I must never have a losing trade.
I must always make 20 pips a day.
OK, I can have losing trades, but I must never have a losing day.

Do these rules sound familiar? Ever make them for yourself?

Don't do it.

What counts is at the end of the year (they call it annual rate of return for a reason) do you have net income or net loss.

Net income for the year is what you aim for. And along the way there will be balls, strikes, and even a few outs. It's all part of the game.

Does Paper Trading Help?

2006-03-12T05:45:00.000-08:00

When you first join Kenison Numbers and download the trading platform (for free I might add), they give you $50,000 in play money to trade with.

Being able to "trade" the daily numbers helps you to develop the habits you will need when trading with your own money. Entering your orders every night and updating your standing orders as the market moves.

But what it does not have is the emotional impact of actual trading.

Indeed, it can become easy to "trade" using play money. Too easy.

When the day comes to commit hard-earned cash to the markets, you can experience serious emotional ups and downs.

It is then that you realize that trading -- successful trading -- takes time and patience to work on yourself -- on your emotions and hopes and dreams -- until you have "faith" that daily trading of the Kenison Numbers will produce the income that you are hoping for.

So Now We Know!

2006-03-03T05:18:00.000-08:00

On Thursday they raised the interest rate for the Euro by 25 basis points to 2.5 percent. The market had already factored that in, but the Euro rose in value in dramatic fashion anyway.

We are now definitely out of our ranges and I hope we stay that way.

On March 1 I reached a milestone -- one year of publishing Kenison Numbers. The year end results for March 1, 2005 to March 1, 2006 are on the link at the right. Over $160,000 in profits on margin of $50,000.

We are going to stay in Pilot on the Forex advisory for one more month. But as I write this, with only two days of trading in the month, we are up $1,280.

Whither the Euro?

2006-02-26T10:56:00.000-08:00

The last two weeks have been very rocky for the Euro, and also the Pound and Swiss which are correlated with it.

The chart on the left is of the Euro and is for the March contract of the futures.

You can see at a glance that the trend for all of Feb has been down. But you can also see that in the last two weeks there have been violent spikes up that failed to result in a rally higher.

Note that the last 6 bars seem to have a floor beneath them. If the Euro is to continue going lower, it must break through this floor.

Decisively.

If it cannot...then it will go higher to sideways a while longer. So we will wait on Monday to see if it can muster the power to go lower. If not, the picture will be clearer on Tuesday Morning.

The Difference Size Makes!

2006-02-23T09:39:00.000-08:00

I'm sure we have all had the experience of driving through a small town and seeing a car dealorship with -- oh, maybe -- 30 cars on display in the lot...and many of them are used cars for sale.

Without even going into the lot to investigate you can bet that the prices quoted will be higher than at the megalot dealorships in the Big City.

Why is that?

Do I even have to ask?

It's all about supply and demand. And big dealors have more supply, therefore lower prices.

Trading the different Forex sessions is alot like that. Instead of being a place it's a time.

Here's what I mean. Last night the London session bid the Euro up to about 11970 only to have the New York session take it right back down to 11928.

Because the London session does not have as many traders, there's not as much supply and therefore prices can be bid up just like at the small-town dealorship.

The reason I say this is because a person looking in from the outside would be surprised to see the ups and downs of this market, and wonder why that is.

That is the reason (IMO).

Let's Talk Drawdown!

2006-02-16T15:08:00.000-08:00

OK...first, what exactly is "drawdown"?

It is the most that your account can go down by in a given
month.

It varys of course. But usually you keep track, and the winner
is the month with the greatest drawdown.

The theory is that it is all well and good to say "we made such and
such amount of money in January." But people subscribe on any
given day, and they might not participate in the "big runup" that
brought in all of the profits at the start of the month.

So you figure it by listing each days' gains or losses, then you skip
the wins and just start counting the losses. You stop when you
get more wins. So I guess another way of saying this is: What is
the most you can lose in the longest losing streak?

Well, this month so far if you missed the first $3,716 profit and then
began to rack up the losses, you will be out $3,880 so far.

Last month it was a whopping $9,900 in the middle of the month. Of course
that came on the heels of a nearly $12,000 gain right off the bat.

This matters because using the large contract as the benchmark -- and to trade
all 4 currencies that we trade: Euro, Yen, Swiss, Pound -- you need $2000 margin
in your account. Bare Minimum.

We start by assuming you have $8,000 to begin. So you can lose a maximum of
$6,000 before margin call. Last month you would have been on margin call
if you missed the beginning winning trades. But of course if you participated in
those profits, then you were all right for the month.

This month too. Even if you missed the $3,716 winning trade at the beginning
you're still all right. But it is getting close.

My hunch is that the real minimum needed to trade the Kenison Numbers is
$3,000 per currency or $12,000 minimum. That would have worked last month
even with the $9,900 loss in the middle. But there would have been a carryover
loss into this month.

It all depends on when you start. And nobody knows the future therefore nobody
knows the one best time to start.

The New Fed Chairman Speaks

2006-02-15T15:02:00.000-08:00

Well it was a wild day in the currencies as the new Fed Chairman indicated that he may or may not be done raising rates. All the currencies gyrated wildly and then settled back down, but we are in the middle of a whipsaw.

I hate it when that happens!

Depending on how much you have in your account, you may want to exit the Euro and trade just 3 currencies (if your balance is below $6,000 or $600 for the mini contract).

We will see what tomorrow brings.

Trading In A Channel

2006-02-14T14:32:00.000-08:00

Today we again traded in a channel on all of the currencies except
for the Swiss Franc which declined noticeably (which means that
the dollar went down vis-a-vis the Swiss, because the Swiss
actually turned up today.)

To see this in action take a look at the futures trade for the Swiss.

I came very close to lowering the Pound's upper limit too. But
I don't want to press my luck. We definitely do not want to flip
overnight, so adjust your stops back if you must.

I can't wait for this indecision to end so that we can get back to
really trading again.

The Danger Of Whipsaw

2006-02-12T18:15:00.000-08:00

Mr Kenison laid down a strict rule that trading was to take place during daytime hours in New York, and no heed be given to what went on during the Tokyo or London sessions.

The reason he did this was because of volume. No matter how much the Brits might bid up a currency, the sheer volume of the New York markets would prove more than a match for them, and could easily undo any movement in the market caused in London.

Now, it is also true that New York could agree with London, and continue on a rally or sell-off.

But that would happen maybe one time in 5, whereas the other 4 times New York would totally reverse what happened in Tokyo or Europe while we slept here in America.

You could see this last Thursday Night/Friday Morning when during the wee hours the Euro whipsawed first up and then down giving up two losing trades in the course of one night.

It is very important then, that you see that during the night we place stops so far away from the market's action that they will certainly not be hit. Trading without stops if your account allows for it. Otherwise, it is better to get out each day after the close of trade in New York, and enter afresh in the morning.

Most days that will not be necessary. Last Friday it was.

From now on -- No Trade during the London or Tokyo session. The only market flips that mean anything are done in New York.

5 Differences Between Forex and Commodities

2005-10-13T08:29:00.000-07:00

You hear so much about Forex these days, what exactly is it, and how does it differ from Futures trading also known as Commodities?

First, Commodities:

They are Wheat, Soybeans, Corn, and Oil and Gas (so much in the news these days).
You buy them for future delivery a month or two ahead. That's why they're called Futures.
You need a special broker to trade in Commodities, your regular stock broker won't do.
It also takes a significant amount of money...say, $50,000 in your account to trade them.

Now Forex:

It stands for Foreign Exchange deals with the currencies of each nation.
You only need as little as $300 to open an account.
You don't need a broker at all. In Forex they're not used.
You can't get "upside down" in a trade and lose your shirt. If you fail to have sufficient margin in your account, the computer program closes that trade.
It's all electronic. Like the NASDAQ.

I publish an advisory that tells you all about the Forex, and gives you daily trading numbers with which you can try to make money.

How To Become Immune To Job Layoffs

2005-09-27T10:10:00.000-07:00

Think Back to the Nineties.

Do you remember knowing anyone where you worked who bought and sold stocks using an online broker? Do you remember how new that was back then?

It used to be that only the wealthy owned stocks. It was almost impossible to qualify for a brokerage account.

Once the "common person" began owning mutual funds, it was only a matter of time before they could own a brokerage account too.

And online trading made it easy.

But...do you remember the bubble bursting?

Here's the problem with stocks:

There are so darn many of them
You can only really make money when you buy them and wait for them to go up in price.
There is no place to get really good tips about which stocks would go up...and when!

Fast Forward to Now.

Forex Trading (currency trading) is taking the place of stock trading online.

There are only 4 or 5 for you to know about or worry about.
You can make money when they go Down or Up.
You don't need a broker.
There are no commissions.
You can start with just $300 in your account.

Just one more thing.

How to know whether a currency is going to up (or down)? We publish an advisory that tells you. We look at the charts and can predict...because the big banks signal their intentions and all we have to do is do what they do.

We teach all of this in our course FXTrainer. After you're trained we have a chat room where you can trade alongside your teammates and do what they do. We hold your hand every step of the way.

To take the next step, click on the "Learn Forex" link there on the right. Friendly hands will reach out to you.

We want to make you immune to Job Layoffs!

Programmers Are Especially Good At Forex Trading

2005-09-19T12:19:00.000-07:00

Read On For The Justification For This Statement...

Yes, it's true (in my opinion)...computer programmers seem to have a knack for online Forex trading.

Let me explain.

I myself used to be a computer programmer by trade, and I can recall that when I first read the rules that govern technical trading -- I thought to myself -- "This is just like the statements in my first BASIC program."

That is because most technical trading rules are a series of If...Then statements.

Now, here's what you must understand.

In our FXTrainer course on trading Forex, we rely heavily on technical trading for our profits. Technical trading is deciding when to buy and sell by looking at a chart of the prices of whatever it is that you are buying and selling.

If a person can look at a page of program code and tell you what it means and what is going on with it, that person probably will be able to look at a chart of the Swiss Franc and tell you whether to buy or sell (once they've been trained in doing it).

It's just that simple. That has been my experience.

Now it's also true that programmers are maybe most at risk of having their jobs outsourced to India.

If you are a programmer and you would like to make yourself impervious to job loss, or even if you're not a programmer and would like to make yourself impervious to job loss, study the art of foreign currency trading and learn to trade from the privacy of your own home.

Trader Nation

2005-09-19T09:30:00.000-07:00

May I share my vision with you?

America has ceased to be a "manufacturing nation" and is now a "trading nation".

The ability and know-how to buy and sell at a profit are now the root competencies for this century.

In many ways we are in the same situation as the Dutch in the 1600s when the East Indies Company was bringing in untold wealth to the Dutch merchants.

We are now on the cusp of another revolution: the ability to buy and sell currencies online.

This used to be the sole domain of the big banks who had the network in place because it is an over-the-counter market. But with the advent of online electronic trading (such as NASDAQ) it is possible for anyone to do it.

I and my partner offer a system that will train you to trade currencies like the big banks do. We hold you by the hand each step of the way and mentor you in this process.

Computer Programmers have proven to be especially adept at learning the "technical trading" concepts that we teach because the trading rules resemble programming statements for a simple computer program.

With Job uncertainty being what it is, it is my belief that those who know how to trade currencies and commodities online are truly independent and impervious to Job loss.

Learn more at www.wordlink.net

I'm Teaming Up With FxTrainer

2005-09-14T17:37:00.000-07:00

Let me put it this way. If you had started last March 1 with $50,000 in your commodity brokerage account trading the Kenison Numbers advice, you would still have your $50,000 but you would also have approximately $135,000 in profits.

Imagine how your life would be different if you could do this on a regular basis.

But most people can only dream about such things because they lack the know-how to trade commodities and besides -- they lack the $50,000 to get started!

I understand. I really do! That's why I have teamed up with a program called FXTrainer to offer a course in currency trading in a market called the Forex market (which stands for Foreign Currency eXchange).

Let me explain.

Trading currencies like the Swiss Franc, the Euro, and the British Pound is a big part of commodity trading. If you had started with $10,000 in your account that I spoke of a moment ago on March 1 and traded just the 4 currencies, your account would have grown by $44,200 in just these past few months.

Can you see what I mean?

Learning to trade currencies is a good first step toward trading our whole portfolio of markets. But still, $10,000 is a lot for most people.

So with FXTrainer you can start with as little as $300 in your Forex account. In fact, we recommend that you start with no more than that until you have found your sea legs in trading.

Why can you trade with so little in a Forex account while commodities require so much? Because there is a lot less risk!

There are no commissions with Forex. There are no brokers. There are no set hours...it is all electronic. And if a trade goes against you the computer will just close your trade out -- no margin calls.

That's why I have discovered that the secret to helping people trade commodities using the Kenison Numbers Advisory is to teach them FIRST to trade Forex using much smaller accounts and then graduate them when they feel they are ready.

This course teaches you everything you need to know to be successful. Once you have finished it you are ready to trade using FXTrainer's proprietary trend-following system which comes along with their up to the minute charting system.

That's right! FXTrainer comes with an advisory built in AND a charting service...AND chat room support so that you can trade right alongside more experienced traders who are trading the very same signals that you will be.

It has everything you need to be successful.

And now is an especially good time to learn these things. Because of Hurrican Katrina the difference in value between the Euro and the Dollar are changing...why not profit from it?

And one more thought. If you learn how to trade currencies, you become immune to outsourcing or job loss. No one can take your knowledge away from you. You will always be able to earn a living even if you lose your job.

Why not check into it immediately? Just click here: http://www.wordlink.net

P.S. To look at the results for the Kenison Numbers go to www.KenisonNumbers.com

Disclaimer: Forex and Commodity trading involve a large risk and are not for everyone. Only risk capital that you can afford to lose should be used. Just because our systems and advice worked in the past is not a guarantee that they will work in the future or be profitable.

CFTC regulations require: "HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN INHERENT LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT ACTUALLY BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN.

The Rythms Of The Market

2005-05-20T08:29:00.000-07:00

One thing that jumps out at you as you watch the Kenison Numbers trades unfold is the sheer number of losing trades.

I have reflected on this a lot of late and would like to share my thoughts with you.

If you look at the link at the right under the daily numbers you will see a box on that page that shows the (hypothetical) results from the last 3 months. These are net results: gains - losses - $40 per trade fee. For all three months the amounts are positive.

But still there are lots of losses.

Now, it is relatively easy to take a loss after a large winning trade. If cotton has just made a sizeable move and we've just taken $1,300 in profits and the very next trade is a $280 loss, it is easy to take it and hope for another sizeable move.

But sometimes there are two, three, even four losing trades in a row. Or maybe even a losing month (for that portfolio) after several winning months.

The temptation to "fix" the technique to avoid these losses while keeping the gains is just at the very heart of why most traders lose money and ultimately fail.

The Kenison Numbers is based on the energy of the market itself, and if the market becomes confused then we will lose money. But that is the market, not us, causing that. If you stay the course over the long haul, the Numbers will right themselves.

A look at past results (which do not guarantee future results will be similar) bears this out.

When you are trading using these numbers, and you find yourself becoming impatient with the losses, reflect on this: if you were not using Kenison Numbers, those feelings of impatience would cause you to make trades, or stay in trades too long, that would be at the root of ultimate failure.

The reason a trader makes money using Kenison Numbers is because of the discipline that they enforce that a trader using seat-of-the-pants logic does not have.

Success and Self Image

2005-05-18T08:05:00.000-07:00

Today's post is going to be a little philosophical for you. I would like to address the issue of success in trading and your self image.

What I mean is, all of us have an image of "how the world works" and what our place in it is.

In our world image, money follows hard work as a reward. The harder you work, the more you should be rewarded with money.

Attempts in our youth to make a "fast buck" were soundly rebuked by our parents who instructed us in the value of money and why we must work hard for it.

In trading the commodities markets, a trade that lasts just a few days can reward us with 1 or 2 grand. And there is no heavy lifting.

This turns everything your Father ever told you about money on its head, and will provoke a sense of guilt...a sense that money that is not worked for (in the usual sense of that word) is ill-gotten gains.

This results in a subconscious desire to "lose it back" to the market so as to appease the forces that oversee such things.

Following a definite plan, such as using Kenison Numbers to trade, takes this control out of our hands and prevents our guilty self to sabotage our efforts.

Let me say this now for emphasis: Trading these markets...taking these risks...placing these orders and pulling the trigger, is very hard work indeed: some of the hardest you will ever do. It is harder than being a chief executive: many CEOs do not have what it takes to trade profitably.

If you are trading using Kenison Numbers and are experiencing successes, and look down the road and see even greater successes, put aside all guilt about it.

You deserve all your successes!

Week Ends On An Upnote

2005-05-13T16:09:00.000-07:00

Well we come to the end of the week and midway through the month, and all pistons (except the financials) are firing nicely.

It doesn't show yet in the completed trades, but it will in due time.

But oh! those bonds, notes, and S&P! Can they ever make up their mind? I dare you to look at the bond chart and make heads or tails of it.

Changing subjects now: Let's talk for a minute about the difference between a Stop order, and a Market If Touched order.

When you place your orders (if you are trading the Kenison Numbers), you use Stop orders. You buy or sell on a Stop.

But as I prepare the daily results, I have to do so on a Market If Touched basis.

If you are long the Corn, and the Stop price is 205 (say) and the price gets down to 205, that doesn't mean that your order will be filled. There might only be one small order placed in the pit at the price before the market goes back up again. You might not be filled.

The only way I have of knowing that you have been filled is if the price goes *through* the 205 level. If the price trades at 204 1/2 then I know that the 205 stops have been hit.

If you were to place your order as a Market If Touched order then your broker in the pit would execute your order as a market order the moment even one trade occurs at 205.

As our subscriber base grows, it is possible in a case where the stop price is touched, but the trading does not go through the price, for some of our subscribers to be filled, and others not to be.

I HAVE to assume the stop was triggered, and so flip the price. If you find yourself in a position where you were not filled and so are inverted from the Numbers sheet, just reverse the numbers for the day, and send me an email. The situation will fix itself soon enough.

Europe stands fast

2005-05-05T15:50:00.000-07:00

On Tuesday the Fed raised interest rates by a quarter point...but yesterday the European Central Bank decided to stand pat on their 3% rate. It is expected that they will not raise rates for the rest of the year, and indeed, may cut them.

This is because, unlike the US, Europe's economy is stagnant and inflation is calm.

So -- we have a disparity between what the US is doing and what Europe is doing.

And you can see this reflected in the bond markets and the currency markets as they try to figure out what the "value" of each should be vis-a-vis the other.

Today it was the Swiss Franc that the market devalued even as two days ago they revalued it. They can't quite make out what to do with the Swissy.

The EuroDollar is way up in trading today, being bought on the expectation that rates in Europe are flat but here at home they are robust. They are locking in the high rates right now. (Remember we are trading the September contract).

Trade for the first 4 days of May has been on a losing streak with another $1,723 loss today mainly as a result of crude and heating oil trying to find their equilibrium. Cotton too has been horrid the last few days, but not today, where it handed us $700.

The Fed Speaks

2005-05-03T20:37:00.000-07:00

The Fed increased rates by 1/4 point today and the markets reacted. Let's talk about this.

Interest rate markets include Bonds, TNotes, and the EuroDollar. They move inversely to the rates. When rates go up, they go down -- that is their price goes down. This is not an emotional reaction. I'm not saying that for some emotional reason holders of bonds sell off when interest rates rise.

It is how the markets work. Now, it was widely expected that the Fed would raise the rates. That helps to account for the fact that bonds, and tnotes sold off yesterday and we are now short. We have moved our stops today.

The Eurodollar was already short too, but we whipsawed today, with that market first moving up and then down sharply. Why?

After the Fed raised the rates (which the S&P reacted to negatively) Alan Greenspan then came out later and said a line had been left out of the report -- the line about inflation not being a worry.

The market exploded at that news and in the last few minutes of trade the Dow and S&P went up, whereas they had been down.

Same with Eurodollars. If you look at the chart you can see the exact moment of the report and of the correction. If inflation is under control it has a bearing on future interest rates, and since the Eurodollars are an interest rate instrument (dollars in bank CDs in Europe) they reacted first by going up (inflation) and then down (no inflation, and rates will rise later this year).

The Swiss Franc was similarly affected, as was the Euro itself.

Cotton reversed again today, going short, but this time it is decisive (I think). Highly volatile.
We went long the crude by one point. And missed going long the heating oil by one point. I expect to go short the crude again tomorrow.

Total on the day: A $2,081 loss with cotton providing a big part of that.

A Downer of a Beginning

2005-05-02T19:23:00.000-07:00

Well we've started a new month with a $4,737 loss. Today was very unsettled in both the bond markets and (surprise) the currencies. The Yen and Pound were holdovers from the weekend (being long that is) and so they went short today to join the Euro and Swiss.

But it was Cotton that went wild. We started the day short, but within minutes of the open were long. Then about midday we were short. And then before the close we went long again and that is where we sit. The numbers were not particularly far apart today which made the triple whipsaw possible. But for tomorrow there is a two hundred point spread, making whipsaw tomorrow unlikely.

Unless crude and heating oil have a change of heart overnight, they will go long on the open tomorrow. And depending on what they do, the currencies might reverse again. You gotta love the unsettled conditions we have.

A Tumultuous Day

2005-04-29T14:16:00.000-07:00

What a trading day! First the Yen and Euro gapped open higher and the grains headed south. Crude and Heating Oil were up.

Then Crude and Heating Oil took a dive, and as they did, the Dow headed up, and the Euro headed down. The Yen stayed up because Japan is benefited by lower oil prices.

And so the June Oil contract closed below $50 a barrel, and everything else on the see-saw had to adjust.

We were whipsawed in Crude, Heating Oil, and the Euro. And came darn close to it in Wheat.

The grains bounced off their lows but didn't rise enough to trigger our stops.

Net trade on the day: -$1,745 in the main portfolio of 21 markets.

In the Oil portfolio itself however, there was a $3,311 gain in unleaded.

So for the month, we netted $7,960 on the main portfolio.

Our goal is 5% per month and we met it. Still, the currency and financial markets (bonds and treasure notes and S&P) were very unsettled this month, and didn't trend well at all. I'm hoping for a better month in May, but we'll see...

Days Of Uncertainty

2005-04-28T15:22:00.000-07:00

For the last several trading days it has been hard for me to see the pattern in what the markets are doing.

Yesterday, for example, the market (S&P) was down until oil bounced off of its lows, and then picked up steam. Today it's down again. It doesn't hurt me because we are short the S&P, but it is hard to see the logic in what the market is doing.

With grains it is easier. They have tried to break through to the upside and it failed decisively. Therefore the grains are indeed headed lower. At least for now until weather news can affect them.

Currencies have been wild all month. I defy you to look at the chart for the Swiss Franc and make heads or tails out of it!

For us to make money in the market, the market must trend. Kenison Numbers is a trend following method and to follow a trend, there must first be a trend. If the market reverses course every single day (or two) then there's not much of a trend.

Profits for the month, with one day remaining, are $9,705 or just shy of 10% gain for the month.

Decent enough. I'm hoping the markets settle down and trend more next month.

Blast Off in the Grains

2005-04-25T15:49:00.000-07:00

We begin the week with a blaze of activity in the grains.

Overnight the beans were up strongly in the night market and sure enough, they, along with corn and wheat went skyrocketing up on the open.

But by the time the day was over and the dust had settled, we were back pretty much where we were. So what gives?

Heck if I know!

Who is buying all those beans? What are they going to do with them? The country is awash in soybeans just now. So I ask, who is buying them?

But this brings up a different question: does it matter to our trading?

The answer is "no".

It's nice to speculate about what is going on and find explanations -- if possible -- about a lot of things. But in the end, that is not how our trades are determined. The Kenison Numbers let the energy of the market set the bounds for tomorrow's trading, but do not answer the question: Why?

Nor should they.

If beans are going to fall tomorrow because of a failed rally attempt, they will fall hard and fast. Or else, they will not fall hard and fast, but rather hard and soft. Or fast and slow. It drives me crazy to think about it.

I'm glad I don't have to.

The Power Of Leverage

2005-04-22T17:11:00.000-07:00

An so we come to the end of another week. Our total in closed trades stands at $9,809 and that is after $40 per trade has been subtracted for commissions.

Our showcase portfolio of 21 markets needs about $100,000 to trade, and so we are just a bit shy of 10% return on margin for this month.

This is not an annual figure. We are not making 10% per annum. This is 10% this month. Annualized that would be 120% if we make no more the rest of the month. And this is a down month.

People ask me, "Where is this coming from? Why can't stock brokers return this kind of profit?"

These are speculative profits gained from the use of leverage. A stock broker does not (usually) use leverage. But sometimes they do. It is possible to buy stock on margin and make speculative gains. But stock margin is a loan of money at interest to you, while commodity margin is never loaned to you. You must never take out a loan to trade the futures markets.

It is possible to make returns upward of 10% per month using the leverage of the commodity markets, but it is also possible to lose upwards of 10% of your money per month too.

I knew a man who put $60,000 into the markets and it was gone, gone, gone within one month. poof! Gone! Now, mind you, he wasn't trading Kenison Numbers, just seat of the pants trading because, to him, it seemed so simple. He learned otherwise.

What is going on with the Kenison Numbers that makes it seem so easy?

The key word is "seem". It is not, in fact, easy. The Kenison Numbers makes many trades, and many of them are losers. Not all of the sub portfolios make a net profit each month. It just is the case that by trading all 21 a person is hedged so that as one is losing another is gaining. But that is not guaranteed, either.

Remember also, triple margin. The return on margin would be three times greater if we traded using regular margin. Think about that! But the risk would be horrific.

If a person were only trading the grains portfolio, and started this month, he would be down $1,570 so far. That's minus $1,570. But it was worse.

Earlier this week we were down $2,400. In fact it was yesterday. So the grains are trying to right themselves, and maybe by the end of the month there will be a net profit. We'll see. But even when we were down $2,400 that was only 1/3 of our margin. We could lose that again and still have the required margin to trade and not be on margin call. That's the benefit of triple margin.

===================

Have a great weekend. For some, it is the High Holy Days of Passover. We wish you all the best!

Taking Account Of Commissions

2005-04-19T19:56:00.000-07:00

As those of you that have been reading this blog know, when we report hypothetical trades and profits and losses from them, we report them in gross numbers without taking account of commissions.

Now, commissions can be a major expense in your daily trading, especially if your trading plan makes a lot of trades. And the Kenison Numbers trades a lot!

For some time now I have been wanting to take this into account, and today I did something about it. From now on, $40 will be subtracted from every profitable trade and $40 will be tacked onto every loss, making it that much worse. I think this is fair, and gives a truer picture of what is happening with our trading.

If you click on "Current Results" at the right, you will see that the value of trade earnings for the month so far has gone down since yesterday, not because of trades we have made, because actually we had a net profitable day, but because the numbers now include the commissions.

Why $40? Because I used to be a broker and that is what I would charge my bread-and-butter clients for making these trades. It is true that you can negotiate a lower rate especially because you will be trading a lot, or you can trade for yourself online and that generally runs cheaper. But $40 is what seems fair and reasonable to me and so that is what it is.

By the way, I invite you to click on that link and look at the month-to-date profits of our hypothetical trading. At just under $11,000 it represents nearly 11% for the month. Our goal as you know is 5% per month, and we are well on our way this month.

Sensing the Ebb and Flow

2005-04-18T15:56:00.000-07:00

It is interesting to watch the 21 markets that Kenison trades interract with each other. They seem to have a built-in balancing mechanism.

If you look at last weeks low number of $6,800 in closed trades and then look at today's number (in Current Trading Results) you can see a definite come back. But it is even more interesting to watch it day by day.

It does go up and down, like the ebb and flow of the tide, but inevitably it moves upward.

This can be seen also in the grains which are underwater right now.

Last week I commented that in Soybeans the number 617 was the fulcrum, meaning, it was the center of the trading window. Today we're short the beans, and our stop is at 618. So what was once the center of the window is now the top of the window, and all of the energy has shifted to lower prices. The center of gravity has shifted, as it were, and you can almost feel it do it.

I have seen cases where the gravity shifts, and then a day or so later the market explodes in that direction. I don't know if that will happen this time. But "getting in tune" with these markets is like a child who is preparing to jump rope while two friends twirl it.

Before the child can jump in, a series of rocking motions back and forth must come first to "get in tune" with the rhythm of the rope.

That's how I feel about watching these markets.

And the person who can "be one" with them in their rhythm will make the profits in the end.

The Road To Success

2005-04-16T07:29:00.000-07:00

What is the Road To Success with Commodity Speculation?

First, have your financial house in order. You can have some credit card debt, but it should be reasonable. If you own a house, rather than rent, that is good. You should have a savings account for emergencies and have at least a paycheck or two in it for immediate use.

Second, have a retirement plan in place. A 401k plan or something that shows that you are going to provide for your future. And it is here that people make the mistake of putting their 401k money into the stock market in highly speculative issues. It's ok to put it in the stock market, but the market is speculative enough without going overboard.

Third, if those things are in place, you are ready to take a *portion* of your savings (say, 10%) and speculate with it. You are doing this knowingly and on purpose, not accidentally like those who put their money into risky mutual funds without reading all of the fine print to find out all the speculative issues their fund is investing in.

If 10% of your savings is not $100,000 or somewhere close to it then start with $8,000 to $10,000. Less than that will be counter productive in my view.

For $8,000 you can speculate in the Grains Portfolio portion of the Kenison 21 markets. These are non-correlated markets so that one does not pull on the others. Taken together, and with triple margin -- which is what $8,000 is -- you stand a good chance of seeing significant returns on your money.

You goal should be 5% per month, every month, on average.

If you can achieve that, then here is how the Retirement calculation goes: mentally think of how much you need to receive each month once you've quit your day job to live on. Don't count Social Security -- let it be an extra bonus.

Remember to count taxes, including -- and this is important -- Social Security Tax at double what you're used to, because as a self-employed person you must pay the employer's half as well as your own.

So say that you know you can live on $5,000 each month before taxes. Let's just say, as a for instance. Now, multiply that number by 20. That gives $100,000. That's how much you need to have in your Commodities account if you are going to take 5% out each and every month, and have that 5% be $5,000.

Earning 5% per month is very hard to do. I have seldom seen it done. I have seen the Kenison Numbers produce this in hypothetical trading which is why I'm sold on Mr Kenison's techniques and am proud to be publishing this website.

Disclaimer: Commodities speculation is risky and is not suitable for everyone. Only risk capital should be used. Hypothetical trading and results have inherent weaknesses. Read all about it here.

The Beans Fulcrum

2005-04-14T14:55:00.000-07:00

Yesterday I said that 617 was a fulcrum for soybeans: below it and you wanted to be short, above it you wanted to be long.

Today the settle was exactly 617! The market can feel the tension between the buyers and sellers and it keeps coming back to ground zero.

We currently are long: the Kenison Numbers feels that the direction is up. We would go short at 610 which is 7 cents away from 617. We would go long again at 623 (if we were to go short first) which is 6 cents away from 617. The numbers completely bracket the action.

I anticipate an explosive breakout whenever one happens. But this pattern could last a while longer as the planting of soybeans winds up and the market is uncertain.

What's Up With Soybeans?

2005-04-13T16:46:00.000-07:00

In texts on chart theory it is always remarked upon that a chart is a picture of the current state of the battle between the bulls and the bears.

These last days since last Friday have witnessed a great conflict over the pricing of Soybeans. Everytime the price goes down, those who fear that beans will go up in price later in the year and that we will never see prices this low again rush in to buy.

Everytime the price rises to about 23, those who fear that beans will meltdown in the next two weeks think that we will not see prices this high for quite a while, rush in to sell.

617 is the fulcrum. Below 617 a person would want to be short the beans. Above 617 a person would want to be long.

Today we whipsawed. First a powerful push down, putting us short. And then a powerful updraft, putting us long. But this day was a special formation. It is called an "outside day".
If you look at the chart pattern you will see that yesterday's bar is completly engulfed by today's bar. The low today was lower than yesterday's low, and the high today was higher than yesterday's high. The close was near the high of the day.

In the last few days, with the whipsaw trades, which are by definition losing trades, we have lost $1,750 in the soybeans. And this brings us to why Mr Kenison required triple margin to use his trading method.

If you were trading the beans on simple margin with no other offsetting markets to hedge your trades, you would be on margin call right now. But with the triple requirement, you are only 1/3 of the way through that portion of the margin allocated to soybeans. It was Mr Kenison's contention that using his method (triple margin) and with at least three markets (to form a hedge) a person would not go on margin call, ever.

I don't know. I have no personal experience of this by which to judge his statement. But over the next few days we will be watching carefully to see if soybeans right themselves and come back into the black.

We know that in February and March we had net profits in the grain portfolio. But I'm not counting on those profits being in the account. My assumption is that at the end of any given month, any net profits are removed to a safer haven such as a bank account. They are not left to "ride" in the account. That way -- with them removed -- we start each month from zero and make each month's trades stand on their own.

This is what Mr Kenison believed. An account should produce a cash "stream" into the rest of your life. It should not be left to ride and ultimately be lost in later losing trades.

For the entire portfolio of 21 markets, we are standing at $10,092 in booked profits for the month so far. This includes the losses in soybeans. Can you see the benefit of diversification Mr Kenison always preached?

For the grains (wheat, soybeans, corn) we stand at -$100 net loss for the month on $8,000 in triple margin. Our goal is 5% per month from any portfolio we're looking at. So that means our goal is $400 net profit by the end of the month. Do you think it can be done?

Watch and see!

A Bit Late

2005-04-13T07:44:00.000-07:00

I'm posting this on Wednesday Morning for Tuesday's trading day. A Bit Late.

We took $7,312 in net profits on closed trades Tuesday (for the 21 market portfolio) and still the potential profits numbers went down to $6,130. It was a bumpy day.

Late in the day Greenspan signaled that interest rates won't rise quickly, which buoyed the stock market and the dollar. Then a firm that specializes in Oil opined that growth of demand for oil in China would not rise as fast as anyone thought and that production was up. Oil prices turned on a dime and headed down. We had already taken good profits on our short of crude, and by the end of the day were short again. Expect heating oil to follow.

The change in dollar price caused all of our currencies to flip (again) and illustrates clearly why when you trade futures it is good to have a balanced portfolio.

Once the month end is here and we have the final numbers, it will be interesting to come back to this post and read it in light of the "bottom line".

A Surprising Result

2005-04-11T15:34:00.000-07:00

Well I've done the daily trades, and today we lost $5223. This follows on a $1,677 loss on Friday (part of the New Moon, eclipse effect).

But I've entitled this entry "A Surprising Result". Why the surprise?

If you're not a subscriber you can't see Friday's Potential Profits page but let me give you the bottom lines: For the month of April only: Profits from closed trades: $12,007. Total Potential profit in open trades $1,665 Grand Total $13,672.

So far so good.

Now you can see today's Potential Profits page by going to http://www.wordlink.net/circawest/ClosedTradesTotal.html

Study it carefully. Note that -- indeed -- the total profit in closed trades has gone down from $12,000 to $6,850 because of today's loss.

But the Grand Total Profit Potential went UP to $16,624!

This is what was surprising. I scratched my head for a moment, and began to "do the numbers". Where the extra potential profit comes from is the oils (crude and heating oil) and coffee mainly.

Now, potential profits can evaporate in a heartbeat, exspecially when they are in the currencies which trade in Europe in the early morning hours (for us) while we sleep. We can't claim a profit until the trade is closed.

Still, as you study the numbers, you can see the wisdom shown by Mr Kenison is devising his portfolio of 21 markets to trade. They inter-react really well and are what we call "non-correlated" which is just a way of saying the if one group is down it will not drag others down with it.

If you are not a subscriber I would print out the potential profits page today and each day so that you can compare them as the month progresses. A subscriber doesn't need to do that because they have all the stats at their fingertips.

Still, despite the losses today, I feel relieved and even exuberant: total potential value up $3,000 on a down day. That's pretty good.

The Effects of the Solar Eclipse

2005-04-08T17:05:00.000-07:00

Today, being a New Moon, there was a partial eclipse of the Sun in the Southern United States and many traders come to expect weird things when there is an eclipse.

Usually the grains are affected, but today only Soybeans reversed direction, gapped down, and moved decisively.

But the currencies all reversed handing us our head on a platter and cotton reversed (again), sugar reversed, ALL the metals reversed, both the Livestock reversed, so it was indeed a busy day.

Bottom line for the day: we lost $1,671 on all those trades which brings our total for the month in closed trades to $12,007.

But the value of still open trades actually went up because of one thing: oil. Astronomical gains in both crude and heating oil as they fell precipitously (and we're short -- and riding them all the way down.)

All in all a good week, and now we have eclipses out of our system until a few years from now.

Have a great weekend.

Waiting For The Eclipse

2005-04-07T18:48:00.000-07:00

I've titled today's entry Waiting For The Eclipse because in Farm forums (Producer Forums they're called) that's all the talk.

Eclipses can only occur during the New Moon. The New Moon, Full Moon, and other two quarter moons do have an effect on trading, although I don't know why nor does anyone else.

But there is a theory that Eclipses really set things a'goin. But then...doubters point out that the Eclipse will only be partly visible, and then only in the South. Chicago, for instance, will not get to see any of it. Or New York.

So the question is: can an eclipse have an effect where it doesn't happen? Sort of like the tree making noise in the forrest if no one is there ...

We could see the beginnings of it today with Soybeans running up the pole 10 cents and then right back down. I'll be interested to see what tomorrow brings.

The Kenison Numbers narrow close together when high volatility is expected, and tomorrow's bean numbers are not particularly close. So keep that in mind. It means that the numbers are not predicting highly volatile up and down swings. But, beans could melt down. We are only a few cents from going short and unless the beans gap against us (which I have seldom seen in beans using kenison numbers -- in cotton, yes. In beans, no) if we do go short it will be to ride a very profitable downdraft.

Some farmers are predicting a 50 cent drop in the next week or so. Folks, that's a $2,500 move.

So now for the bottom line: 8 trades today with $549 net gain. Total closed trades in the first 5 trading days of April $13,804 in profit on a $100,000 account not counting commissions.

Oil Falls

2005-04-05T16:39:00.000-07:00

Today the "big news" was the fall in oil prices. We took hefty profits in crude, heating and unleaded.

Because oil was down, the dollar was up. The currencies also rose by end of day and we turned in both pounds and francs. We are one or two points from being hit in the Euro and the Yen.

Took profits in the bonds and notes too. So totals for the month so far is $12,845.

Soybeans are going to be interesting in the next few days. They are holding at the moment -- in fact we went long today, taking profits in the process.

But... we are coming into the quarter moon and there is also another timing window starting the 14th which could have soybeans melting down. Keep watching here to see what happens.

Off To A Great Start

2005-04-04T20:58:00.000-07:00

Well, we now have had two trading days in the month of April.

On Friday we had a slew of trades and netted $2,166 and today we had exactly one trade -- Cattle -- and lost $488 on it.

But the current results page tells the story. (see it on the right margin?)

Currencies and Coffee and Financials are all building immense profits in open trades.

At the start of trade today, our total potential value stood at - $1537. Today at the close of trade that same total stands at $13, 917. Crude and Heating Oil are also among the culprits building open profits.

Pretty exciting stuff.

Now, what exactly is a "potential profit"?

If you are in an open trade, each night your brokerage house will mark your account to market, and add (or subtract) the results of that days trade.

But we have posted stop numbers which are (in the case of long trades) below where the market is now. So if you closed out your trade right now this instant, you would get x dollars. But if you get stopped out tomorrow you will get less dollars, because the market will have come down to hit your stop and therefore you will have given up some of your profit.

So the potential trades page is saying "if everything goes against us and we get stopped out of absolutely every trade we're in, what would the profit or loss be?"

And right now, after only two trading days (remember we reset to zero each month) that total stands at $13,917.

I am pleased.

Month End Results For March

2005-04-01T11:35:00.000-08:00

Hi Gang,

Here is my weekly newsletter with the month end results........
================================================

I am pleased to bring you the end of month results for March using hypothetical (that is, paper) trading for the Kenison Numbers.

In closed trades for the month we made $39,433.

That represents 190 separate trades. If you pay $40 round tripcommissions that would be $7,600 in commissions costs. Sothe real month end total is $31,833.

For a $100,000 account that represents almost 32%.

That's just for one month. Tomorrow we set the totals to zeroand start the month of April fresh.

Now, what if you don't have $100,000 lying around that you couldtrade with?

There are 7 different portfolios that make up the 21 markets Kenisonfollowed, and the first one to start with is the Grains (Wheat, Corn,and Soybeans). That takes only $8,000 to trade.

After commissions, the grains made $3,880 last month. That's a whopping49% on the $8,000 -- and remember, that's just one month.

If you would like to watch us trade (after the fact) you can go each dayto www.benttreefinancial.com and click on "hypotheticals" and you willsee the closed trades for the month, plus the estimated profit or loss ofopen trades.

Print that page out each day, and watch the numbers change over time.

Better yet, subscribe to the website for just $29.95 per month, and seethe trading numbers the day before trading starts. Paper trade withus and see if you can get the "feel" of it.

I'm looking forward to a good month in April, and I wish you all prosperity.

Sincerely,

Wes Tuinstra
P.S. That price of $29.95 is going up next week, so take a serious look overthe weekend. We would love to have you join us as a subscriber.

Better than expected growth in the US

2005-03-30T14:17:00.000-08:00

Today the market reacted to truly astounding growth indications for the US economy.

The S&P soared higher reversing course on yesterday's trade. The currencies also turned, but except for the Yen (where we took profits) they didn't hit our stop. So we move the stop in even closer and unless the market changes its mind tomorrow -- which it could, mind you, if there is profit taking on today's slide -- our stops will be hit tomorrow.

Soybeans changed course and headed strongly higher. It doesn't get reflected yet in the potential profits column for another day or so, but for those trading it their daily statement will show a healthy gain in Soybeans, even despite the $-350 loss we took when they (the beans) changed course during the day.

Cotton reversed again, but we took a substantial ($1080) profit.

Net gain on the day, $1971.

Waiting for the Quarter Moon

2005-03-28T13:54:00.000-08:00

Coming back after the long weekend there was a lot of continuation of the trades that are in progress.

What I mean is that the currencies continued to head down as the dollar strengthens against them and so the potential profit in them went way up.

Same with Coffee. Astronomical profits are now building up in our short position in May Coffee. Cotton too, after several whipsaw trades has moved up smartly with good money now in that trade.

As for sugar, well it's back to being it's fickle self.

We stayed short in crude, and have a small but reasonable profit awaiting us there, but heating oil finally turned to match crude, and, unless there is a cold snap somewhere in the country, I expect that it will now move down over the next few days and build a profitable position for us.

We took profits in corn. Is this a pause before a further downdraft? Look at soybeans. It had been heading south when an updraft happened on Thursday. Now we're short again. I think the same thing will happen with corn, but who knows? Wheat just continues to chug along with some more profit being added to our position there.

Cattle and hogs were ho-hum today but we added to the profits in each.

We lost a total of $738 on the day's trades.

Profit Taking In Bonds

2005-03-24T17:01:00.000-08:00

It was a relatively quiet trading day. Lots of traders have already begun the long weekend.

We took profits in bonds, notes, and the S&P... and come to think of it in Soybeans and Heating Oil too. The only down spot was Cotton, which is jumping up and down like a maniac.

Didn't it just gap against us yesterday? Well today it reversed course again.

But despite that we made $4,541 on the day. Not too shabby!

Have a great Easter Weekend.

Massive Buildup

2005-03-23T18:09:00.000-08:00

Today there was not much happening trade wise. We did flip in both Cattle and Hogs before rolling on the close. Of those 4 trades 3 were losses. Then there was cotton. It gapped against us at the open and we flipped there too.

Bottom line: $151 loss on the day.

But... But... BUT

The value of open trades went from $49 to $13,908.

Ponder that for a moment.

Where does the value come from in cases like this? Well, the currencies all pushed strongly lower (which is another way of saying that the dollar pushed strongly upward) and there is pent up profit there. Almost $6,000 in one day.

Then the bonds, and notes also pushed lower strongly and there is profit there.

Coffee.

Coffee is heading lower these days and we are right on top of it. Even lowly sugar is piling up profits. Gold and Silver are adding more profit.

Then there is Crude and Heating Oil. Massive profits building in both of them. Nearly $3,000 today alone.

Grains added another Grand.

Yesterday the total value of the portfolio was $18,280 (that includes open trades as well as closed trades Just From This Month).

Today that value stands at $31,988.

Tomorrow is a short trading day, and Friday is a Holy Day. No Trading then.

See you tomorrow.

Feds Raise Rates

2005-03-22T15:37:00.000-08:00

The main action was provided by Greenspan raising rates a quarter point.

Bonds and notes had already come up and hit our stops in profit taking, as did the 4 currencies. As soon as the news had broken, they all went down again, whipsawing us in all 6 markets.

As for EuroDollars, yesterday I reported a trade... selling at 9608. But after the close they took that print away from the tape and so readers with orders in the market did not get filled.

But, today they got filled with a vengeance.

Heating Oil also finally turned down and we took nice profits there. Also in Cotton.

So the bottom line for the day was net gain -- despite the whipsaw trades -- of $5,389 on the day.

Tomorrow we will roll out of Cattle and Hogs on the close into the JUNE contract.

Pent up Profits Waiting To Happen

2005-03-21T14:19:00.000-08:00

Today there was not much action on the trades front. Three trades, two of them losses for a net loss on the day of $748.

The Eurodollar has now flipped short ahead of Greenspan's anticipated action of raising rates come Wednesday.

Copper flipped again and we took small profits on hogs. We will roll out of the April Livestock contracts on the close on Wednesday.

But... all of the other active trades showed gains. Coffee, sugar and cotton going our way strongly. The bonds and tnotes moving down smartly along with the S&P.

And then there were the foreign currencies. All down strongly, because higher interest rates here would mean that the dollar is more attractive. We're now sitting on very nice profits in the currencies.

Gold came within 1/10 of a point of hitting our stop. But didn't touch it. Instead it (and silver) went down smartly (that interest thing again) and tomorrow we'll be able to move our stop in gold to protect more of the profits.

I was surprised that crude didn't hit our stop and go long. But neither it nor heating oil changed direction. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

I'm excited. Potential profits went from $15,000 on Friday to $23,000 as of the close today. With more to come tomorrow.

Remember, past profits do not necessarily guarantee future results. There is always risk in trading futures and only risk capital should be used.

Slow Friday

2005-03-18T14:09:00.000-08:00

Today was a relatively slow day, with the bonds and notes flipping down before the weekend. We just about broke even on those trades, but there is reaction in advance to Greenspan's possible raising of rates next Wednesday. Raising rates means bond prices would go lower, because they do the opposite of rates. So they may well stay short through next week's shortened trading.

Copper whipsawed today, first down, and then back up. Gold and Silver remain short.

Coffee continues to give us fits, as the market can't quite seem to figure out what to do with the May contract.

Crude went short (we're talking May here) but Heating Oil stayed long and we now are sitting on a sizeable profit in Heating Oil for May delivery.

And that's it. Of the trades today, because of copper's whipsaw, we lost a token $248.76.

For the week we booked $6,906 in profits.

Have a great weekend.

Profit Taking In The Grains

2005-03-17T14:11:00.000-08:00

Today's action was characterized by profit taking in the grains, and reverse (again!) in the currencies.

One look at the currencies charts and you will see we definitely are going sideways. The market simply cannot make up its mind on the relative value of them to the dollar, and the dollar to crude.

Poor Eurodollar! The euro dollar is an interest market. Meaning, it responds like bonds: goes up when rates go down, and down when rates go up. It represents dollars -- in Europe -- in interest bearing instruments. It has been whipsawing us this month for sure. But now *seems* to be headed up for sure.

We have had a big runup in the grains and today took good profits in them. Wheat is poised to resume its upward trend, and soybeans might too. Corn may rest for a day or two.

Silver whipsawed us. First up just enough to trip our buy, and then down. We remain short now, and may see silver fall further. Gold went down nicely today too, and we are sitting on a nice profit there.

Of the days trades: $1,582 net profit.

Currencies Change Course Again

2005-03-15T14:04:00.000-08:00

These are days of adjustment in the world of currencies. Except for the Euro, which was already long, we changed course again with the others and went long. Except for the Euro. It went south.

Apparently there was more capital inflow to the states than expected which caused the Euro to get revised downward. But tomorrow it could go up again. The currencies are very unstable because the stakes are high and speculators can't quite be sure.

We took profits in Notes and Bonds today, but were whipsawed in the S&P. First up and then down at the close.

Coffee, which had gone down strongly yesterday, came right back in our face today. For tomorrow, we've moved the stop in close and snug. We may reverse tomorrow, or it could resume its downtrend. At this time of year it's all about the weather in Columbia!

Cattle went long today too and we took nice profits there. Of all the 13 trades we did today, we netted $1,121 in profits.

Change of Direction For The Currencies

2005-03-14T20:47:00.000-08:00

Today's trades were dominated by the reversal in the currencies and by our roll out of the April contract in the oils and Gold.

First the oils. We were already long the Heating Oil, and early on we went long the crude. By the end of trade we were sitting on a $340 intra-day profit which we took when we rolled into the May contract. We added to our cushion in the Heating Oil and took a $415 profit when we rolled out of it too.

The currencies headed south with the firming up of the dollar despite the higher oil. In the Euro we took a $2,800 profit with the change of direction, but all of the others posted losses.

Gold turned too, and we took profits. But by day's end when we rolled, Gold was unchanged.

Bottom Line: $3,589 in booked profits on the day.

Whiplash and Indecision

2005-03-11T14:51:00.000-08:00

Today we were whipsawed in both the S&P and the Swiss Franc. What I mean is that first the S&P went up and put us long, and then came crashing down and put us short again. I wish they wouldn't do that!

Same in SF. We were long, but they came and got our stop and then turned around and went right back up.

Brit Pound flipped to the upside too.

We came within a whisker of flipping up in crude oil, but are still short. We did flip in Heating Oil though and now are long again.

Note: On Monday at the close we are going to roll out of the April contracts for Crude and Heating Oil and into the May contracts. Also we're rolling into June Gold.

We went short the Cattle today, taking a huge profit in the doing. On the days trades, even counting the two whipsawes, we made a net $1431. Not too shabby.

Have a great weekend and look forward to Monday's action!

Crude and Heating Oil head south

2005-03-10T14:02:00.000-08:00

The main action today was both Crude and Heating Oil going short for the April contract. We took profits on both trades and now are well in the black on the current trade.

Coffee also reversed, and although the "if stopped" column will not show it until tomorrow, we are sitting on quit a bit of profit potential there too.

Wheat whiplashed us today, first going short, only to reverse later in the day and go long. Corn reversed as well, and soybeans went up without a whiplash.

$2,300 gain on the day.